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11.
Non-linear fuzzy-set based uncertainty propagation for improved DO prediction using multiple-linear regression 总被引：1，自引：1，他引：0
Usman T. Khan Caterina Valeo Jianxun He 《Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment (SERRA)》2013,27(3):599-616
In this paper, a new non-linear fuzzy-set based methodology is proposed to characterize and propagate uncertainty through a multiple linear regression (MLR) model to predict DO using flow and water temperature as the regressors. The output is depicted as probabilistic rather than deterministic and is used to calculate the risk of low DO concentration. To demonstrate the new method, data from the Bow River in Calgary, Alberta from 2006 to 2008 are used. Low DO concentration has been occasionally observed in the river and correctly predicting, and quantifying the associated uncertainty and variability of DO is of interest to the City of Calgary. Flow, temperature and DO data were used to construct five MLR models, using different combinations of linear and non-linear fuzzy membership functions. The results show that non-linear representation of variance is superior to the linear approach based on model performance. Normal and Gumbel based membership functions produced the best results. The outputs from two non-linear fuzzy membership models were used to calculate risk of low DO. The predicted risk was between 3.9 and 4.9 %. This is an improvement over the traditional method, which can not indicate a risk of low DO for the same time period. This study demonstrates that water resource managers can adequately use MLR models to predict the risk of low DO using abiotic factors. 相似文献
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The presence of noise in measured data should be carefully considered in inverse scattering methodologies, because of the intrinsic ill-conditioning of the problem. To limit the effects of noise on the retrieval procedure, this letter presents an innovative fuzzy-logic-based approach. The proposed strategy allows one to take into account the corrupted nature of the data by fully exploiting all the available information content of the measurements. Selected synthetic and experimental test cases are considered for assessing the effectiveness of the proposed approach also in comparison with a reference inverse scattering technique. 相似文献
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Fragility curves for risk-targeted seismic design maps 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
Thomas Ulrich Caterina Negulescu John Douglas 《Bulletin of Earthquake Engineering》2014,12(4):1479-1491
Seismic design using maps based on “risk-targeting” would lead to an annual probability of attaining or exceeding a certain damage state that is uniform over an entire territory. These maps are based on convolving seismic hazard curves from a standard probabilistic analysis with the derivative of fragility curves expressing the chance for a code-designed structure to attain or exceed a certain damage state given a level of input motion, e.g. peak ground acceleration (PGA). There are few published fragility curves for structures respecting the Eurocodes (ECs, principally EC8 for seismic design) that can be used for the development of risk-targeted design maps for Europe. In this article a set of fragility curves for a regular three-storey reinforced-concrete building designed using EC2 and EC8 for medium ductility and increasing levels of design acceleration \((\hbox {a}_\mathrm{g})\) is developed. These curves show that structures designed using EC8 against PGAs up to about 1 m/s \(^{2}\) have similar fragilities to those that respect only EC2 (although this conclusion may not hold for irregular buildings, other geometries or materials). From these curves, the probability of yielding for a structure subjected to a PGA equal to \(\hbox {a}_\mathrm{g}\) varies between 0.14 ( \(\hbox {a}_\mathrm{g}=0.7\) m/s \(^{2})\) and 0.85 ( \(\hbox {a}_\mathrm{g}=3\) m/s \(^{2})\) whereas the probability of collapse for a structure subjected to a PGA equal to \(\hbox {a}_\mathrm{g}\) varies between 1.7 \(\times 10^{-7}\) ( \(\hbox {a}_\mathrm{g}=0.7\) m/s \(^{2})\) and 1.0 \(\times 10^{-5}\) ( \(\hbox {a}_\mathrm{g}=3\) m/s \(^{2})\) . 相似文献
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Stefano Silvestri Sulyman Mansour Matteo Marra Johann Distl Marco Furinghetti Igor Lanese Enrique Hernndez-Montes Caterina Neri Michele Palermo Alberto Pavese Elisa Rizzo Parisi Adam Jan Sadowski Francesco Selva Tomoyo Taniguchi Laura Vadrucci Felix Weber 《地震工程与结构动力学》2022,51(1):169-190
This paper reports on a series of shaking table tests on a full-scale flat-bottom steel silo filled with soft wheat, characterized by aspect ratio of around 0.9. The specimen was a 3.64-m diameter and 5.50-m high corrugated-wall cylindrical silo. Multiple sensors were used to monitor the static and dynamic response of the filled silo system, including accelerometers and pressure cells. Numerous unidirectional dynamic tests were performed consisting of random signals, sinusoidal inputs, and both artificial and real earthquake records. The objectives of this paper are (i) to provide a general overview of the whole experimental campaign and (ii) to present selected results obtained for the fixed-base configuration. The measured data were processed to assess the static pressures, the dynamic overpressures (related to the effective mass) and the accelerations of monitored points on the silo wall, and to identify the basic dynamic properties (fundamental frequency of vibration, damping ratio, dynamic amplification factors) of the filled silo. The main findings are discussed and compared with the predictions given by available theoretical models and code provisions. It is found that the fundamental frequency slightly decreases with increasing acceleration, while it slightly increases with increasing compaction of the granular material. For close-to-resonance input, the dynamic amplification (in terms of peak values of accelerations) increases along the height of the silo wall up to values of around 1.4 at the top surface of the solid content. The dynamic overpressures appear to increase with depth (differently from the EN1998-4 expectations), and to be proportional to the acceleration. 相似文献
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Natural speciation of Mn, Ni, and Zn at the micrometer scale in a clayey paddy soil using X-ray fluorescence, absorption, and diffraction 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
Alain Manceau Caterina Tommaseo Nicolas Geoffroy Michel Schlegel Matthew A. Marcus Zueng-Sang Chen 《Geochimica et cosmochimica acta》2005,69(16):4007-4034
The natural speciation of Mn (0.19 g/kg), Ni (46 mg/kg), and Zn (42 mg/kg) in the argillic horizon (120 cm depth, pH = 5.6) of an Ultisol from a paddy soil in northern Taiwan was investigated by advanced X-ray synchrotron techniques. Microchemical associations were imaged by synchrotron-based X-ray microfluorescence, host minerals were identified by standard and micrometer-resolved X-ray diffraction, and the local coordination environment of Mn, Ni, and Zn was probed using extended X-ray absorption fine structure (EXAFS) spectroscopy on a powdered sample and a soil thin section, and polarized EXAFS spectroscopy on a highly textured self-supporting clay film from the <2 μm fraction of the soil. Manganese was concentrated in Fe-Mn soft mottles (44.4 g/kg) as turbostratic hexagonal birnessite and lithiophorite having Mn3+/Mn4+ atomic ratios of ∼20% and 50%, respectively. Quantitative analysis of high-order scattering paths of the EXAFS spectrum for natural and synthetic lithiophorite revealed that Mn3+ and Mn4+ are ordered in the layer. A structural model is proposed, in which Mn4+ and Mn3+ are ordered similarly to Al and Li in the layer, with Mn3+ cations being surrounded by six Mn4+, and Mn4+ cations by three Mn3+ and three Mn4+. Similar cation ordering in the manganese and aluminum layers likely provides a more homogeneous local balance of the excess and deficit of charges in each layer and increases the stability of lithiophorite. Ni (r = 0.70 Å) substitutes for Mn (r(Mn4+) = 0.54 Å, r(Mn3+) = 0.65 Å) in the manganese layer in the natural lithiophorite. In contrast, Zn (r = 0.74 Å) fills vacant sites in the gibbsitic layer of natural lithiophorite, in a similar manner as lithium (r = 0.74 Å) in synthetic lithiophorite. The partitioning of Ni and Zn between the two layers is a result of the general preference of Ni, whose size is intermediate between those of Mn3+ and Li+, for slightly smaller sites. In contrast with nickel, which is detected only where there is lithiophorite, the Zn-lithiophorite association found in Fe-Mn mottles is not representative of the bulk soil. The combined use of X-ray diffraction, and powder and polarized EXAFS spectroscopy revealed that Zn is predominantly bound to hydroxy-Al interlayers sandwiched between 2:1 vermiculite layers in the fine soil matrix. The incorporation of Zn in the gibbsitic layer of both lithiophorite and vermiculite helps increase the stability of these minerals by providing positive charge to balance the negative charge from the 2:1 phyllosilicate layer and the layer of lithiophorite. This binding environment for zinc is probably the main mechanism by which zinc is sequestered in acidic to near-neutral aluminum-rich clayey soils. 相似文献
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The number of climate change laws in major economies has grown from less than 40 in 1997 to almost 500 at the end of 2013. The passage of these laws is influenced by both domestic and international factors. This article reviews the main international factors, drawing on a powerful new dataset of climate legislation in 66 national jurisdictions. We find that the propensity to legislate on climate change is heavily influenced by the passage of similar laws elsewhere, suggesting a strong and so far under-appreciated role for international policy diffusion. International treaties such as the Kyoto Protocol work in two ways. The impact of the Kyoto Protocol itself is limited to countries with formal obligations under the treaty. In addition, the prestige of hosting an international climate summit is associated with a subsequent boost in legislation. Legislators seem to respond to the expectations of climate leadership that these events bestow on their host.
Policy relevance
A global solution to climate change will ultimately have to be anchored in domestic legislation, which creates the legal basis for countries to take action. Countries are passing climate legislation in a growing number. This article asks to what extent they are motivated to do so by international factors, such as existing treaty obligations. We find that the Kyoto Protocol has been a less important factor in explaining climate legislation outside Annex I than the passage of similar laws elsewhere. This suggests that international policy diffusion plays an important and so far under-appreciated role in global climate policy, complementing formal treaty obligations. 相似文献
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Mahbubul?H.?RiadEmail authorView author&#;s OrcID profile Caterina M.?Scoglio D.?Scott?McVey Lee?W.?Cohnstaedt 《Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment (SERRA)》2017,31(2):353-367
Japanese encephalitis (JE) is a vector-borne disease transmitted by mosquitoes and maintained in birds and pigs. To examine the possible epidemiology of JE in the United States, we use an individual-level network model that explicitly considers the feral pig population and implicitly considers mosquitoes and birds in specific areas of Florida, North Carolina, and South Carolina. To model the virus transmission among feral pigs within a small geographic area (<60 sq mi areas), two network topologies are considered: Fully connected and Erdos–Renyi networks. Long-distance connections (interstate) are created with limited probability and based on fall and spring bird migration patterns. Patterns of simulated outbreaks support the use of the Erdos–Renyi network because maximum incidence occurs during the fall migration period which is similar to the peak incidence of the closely related West Nile virus, another virus in the Japanese encephalitis group (Flaviviridae) that is transmitted by both birds and mosquitoes. Simulation analysis suggested two important mitigation strategies: for low mosquito vectorial capacity, insecticidal spraying of infected areas reduces transmission and limits the outbreak to a single geographic area. Alternatively, in high mosquito vectorial capacity areas, birds rather than mosquitoes need to be removed/controlled. 相似文献
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A new multi‐proxy investigation of Late Quaternary palaeoenvironments along the north‐western Barents Sea (Storfjorden Trough Mouth Fan) 
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